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The Philadelphia Federal Reserve surveys 37 prominent economists and compiles a report known as the Survey of Professional Forecasters, to help the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) determine growth in the economy, to assess inflationary factors and ultimately to set monetary policy. Most recently, the consensus predicted real GDP would grow at an annual rate…

The Federal Reserve has been aggressively raising interest rates since last year in response to significant inflationary pressure. As noted in a previous report, earlier in the year we witnessed the effect of a change in monetary policy on the small banking sector. Some notable banks failed, others merged and most required access to increased…

Disclosures:⦁ Past performance is not indicative of future performance.⦁ Cash was included in calculated the Global Equity portfolio returns.⦁ The Global Equity benchmark is the MSCI Global Value Index.⦁ Investing in the Global Equity risk entails substantial risks, including risks associated with investing in emerging markets.⦁ The Global Equity strategy is not FDIC insured and…

On July 26th, 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, resulting in a target federal funds rate of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. The second quarter U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) was released today (+2.4%) and marked the fourth straight quarter of growth and underlined the resilience of the U.S. economy. Inflation…

In our prior monthly updates, we wrote about multiple economic and political factors that led to volatile markets in the first half of 2023.  Yet despite the volatility, market returns have been strong thus far in 2023.  Stock market returns, while broadening in the latter few weeks in the first half, for the most part…

As we head into the May trading period, our thoughts go to the adage “Sell in May, Go Away.” Looking at S&P 500 returns during the month of May since 1994, stocks have gained 73% of the time with an average return of 0.76% for the one-month return. The average annual S&P return over the…

Financial Sector Update The big news during the month of March was the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), which brought the financial stability of banks into sharp focus and resulted in a sharp sell-off in stocks throughout the sector. How did this happen? Very briefly, the pandemic, with the ensuing monetary and fiscal policy…